This is not at all true, and I think it's an example of what statisticians have to fight against in order to explain anything. Most people have an almost religious belief that inferences drawn from statistics should be intuitive, when they are often often extremely counterintuitive.

> After all, most statisticians thought Marilyn vos Savant was wrong about the goats too...

This is the opposite of the argument that you're making. Here you're saying that probability is so confusing and counterintuitive that even the experts get it wrong.