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Wouldn't the prior 26 years in california include multiple huge wildfires?

I suspect they’re getting more and more frequent so the last 26 years alone don’t accurately model the future risk.

Not only that, they’re getting worse. Look at the list of the 20 most destructive wildfires:

And check the years. All but 1 are in the past 25 years.

Costs for construction are also way up.