The $400,000 is an inducement for any participant in that engineering effort to break the conspiracy and take the bag. It's effective during the period between the time that a quantum Shor's solver has been achieved for a given algorithm in theory for 256 bits (and in practice for 66 bits), and the time that a practical solution at 256 bits has been implemented.
I don't know how plausible that timeline is either in spacing or accuracy.
Sometime in early 2029, a bunch of people suddenly find that they're eligible for a $400,000 cash prize if they manage to secretly steal a bit of time on a working quantum computer. In 2030, that group of people doubles, and incorporates a new agency with its own security weaknesses. By 2031 we're talking about four separate countries with their own engineers that have managed to achieve the capability to claim that cash prize. Private corporations are somewhere on the horizon. Very soon this becomes an urgent imperative to anyone inclined, because the prize, like cash, disappears the moment that somebody else seizes it.
It's hard to keep conspiracies, particularly with a verifiable open offer of large amounts of highly portable money on the table to the first person to reveal secrets, and a gradually widening circle of access. The gradually expanding circle of access is what ensures we get some kind of alarm LONG before 2038. Keeping that secret to even 2033 requires hundreds of people and four agencies with diverse motivation and values to consistently turn down cash money for years on end in the interest of keeping their quantum capabilities hidden from the world.
I just think maybe public key crypto is not broken so far because there is no motivation for enough people to work on that. What whould one get, without endangering himself, if he breaks integer factorization?