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Comment by ben_w | Hacker News Reader

> US went to war with Iran, and Iran would destroy Starlink constellation?

> They already have rockets that reach such heights, and Kessler cascade effect would destroy all satellites on LEO!

Then that would be a very convenient MAD threat for Iran, such that the US wouldn't do that.

But it would only be a thing they could reach for if they felt there was an existential threat: If Iran survived it would be on the hook for all the damage it caused in space due to the Space Liability Convention, which it has ratified: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Liability_Convention

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Why would Iran pay anything? If USA decides to launch unprovoked full scale invasion, they have a right to defend themselves!

And US army could not even conquer Afghanistan after 20 years. There is no way they would win.

> Why would Iran pay anything? If USA decides to launch unprovoked full scale invasion, they have a right to defend themselves!

I already told you why: They ratified a treaty saying so.

(Also: 'unprovoked'? The US isn't seeking reasons for that right now, even currently trying to lower tensions between them and Israel, and the two even had a brief period where they agreed to stuff: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_nuclear_deal_framework)

Furthermore, the right to self defence doesn't give countries free reign to do anything, it has to be done with consideration to the harms done to non-combatants, both in the sense of "civilians" and "neutral countries".

> And US army could not even conquer Afghanistan after 20 years. There is no way they would win.

They conquored Afghanistan in a few months; they didn't want to run the place, so they tried to build a democracy. That didn't do what they were expecting, but it doesn't matter if the threat is "does XYZ have nukes and ICBMs?"

In a few months US will have an anti-islamic version of Putin. He is the one who withdrew from treaties you linked.

> consideration to the harms done to non-combatants, both in the sense of "civilians" and "neutral countries".

Knocking down Starlink is perfect version of no-harms strike. Nobody dies, only person negative affected is Musk and some techno bros.

I'm here. I'll be affected along with 4 million others

> In a few months US will have an anti-islamic version of Putin

With 45% probability, assuming he isn't assassinated.

The tie with Musk would make your hypothetical very convenient for Iran as an empty threat though, so there's that.

> Nobody dies

Loads of people die from communication failures.

More importantly, this would only even be a threat if it could actually cause a kessler cascade, because there's too many Starlink satellites to target directly even if you own SpaceX.

This matters because such a cascade will also mess up everything else in close orbits regardless of nationality.

It's like hypothesising someone might use CFCs as a chemical weapon: sure, if they want to make enemies with basically everyone all at the same time.

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