Roger Pielke Jnr has coined "Pielke's Iron Law" .
It is :
"If there is an iron law of climate policy, it is that when policies focused on economic growth confront policies focused on emissions reductions, it is economic growth that will win out every time."
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-iron-law-of-climate...
It looks like a pretty good rule of thumb.