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I wrote this comment on an article that was on HN about 6 months ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39818778

Sadly, given the insane amount of devastation in western NC, I'll get a chance to test my hypothesis. That is, despite Spruce Pine going offline, the overall impact to the global semiconductor industry will be relatively unnoticeable.

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Could also go the other way. Some of you may be old enough to remember the 1993 fire in the Sumitomo epoxy resin factory. Following that, DRAM chips became drastically more expensive (prices increased from $30 to $80 per megabyte) for much longer than the supply disruptions lasted, and interestingly also much longer than other ICs which saw only moderate price increases.

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