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Comment by toomuchtodo | Hacker News Reader

Tesla market cap is based on AI/robotaxi/FSD. Without that, they’re just playing catchup to BYD (who quietly, yet aggressively, executes at scale; they offer EVs today between $10k-$20k and already employ more workers than Toyota [for scale]).

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/03/cars/china-tesla-byd-competit...

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/03/chinas-byd-is-set-to-beat-te...

https://www.counterpointresearch.com/insights/bev-sales-10-m...

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I think you're ignoring the fact that Chinese manufacturers are heavily tariffed in the west

Not at all. Global light vehicle sales are ~90M units/year. US ~17M/year. EU ~13M/year. China remains a factory to the world (and itself is the leading market). BYD can build in Mexico (NAFTA) and the EU to avoid tariffs, if desired.

Tariffs aren’t going to keep the EV printer at bay. They only delay the inevitable.

https://electrek.co/2024/10/09/byd-to-sell-100000-evs-north-...

https://electrek.co/2024/08/16/byd-plots-another-ev-plant-wh...

https://electrek.co/2024/03/12/byd-triple-ev-market-share-eu...

https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/china-ev-driving-seat-us-a...

The tariffs would most likely morph to disallow that.

I disagree this would be effective or a path to success. The evidence does not show policy moves faster than capital, and auto tariff policy gymnastics only work until foreign corporations open factories in country (as Toyota, Honda, Nissan, VW, BMW, Mercedes, Stellantis, and Hyundai all have done [US example]).

US EV demand is simply not at the point where this is economically rational (imho), yet. And so, you’re stuck with a legacy auto EV, a Tesla, or a BYD with 100% tariff markup for now. Even with the tariff, the BYD is still cheaper than a Tesla.

It's not rational, but the current tariffs are explicitly aimed at Chinese EVs and were created faster than they could hit the US market in any sizable quantity even using China's existing manufacturing infrastructure.

Policy in support of existing capital that is a heavy hitter politically can absolutely move faster than capital of new entrants.

And with both political parties explicitly being anti-chinese capital currently, it's not clear that a chinese factory would even be allowed to open domestically.

>BYD can build in Mexico (NAFTA) and the EU to avoid tariffs, if desired.

Not if Trump wins and I mean that without cynicism.

China can easily get around that the same way they made western manufacturers get around its own tariffs. Only the Americans aren’t going to require 49/51 JVs, even though they should.

Heavily tariffed in the US, no tariffs in AU/NZ/Asia.

EU is imposing tariffs depending on the manufacturer's co-operation with cost investigations.

No special tariffs in the UK also.

You are ignoring the fact that the world doesn't end with the USA (and EU)... Even in LatAm (which is "west") there is abundance of Chinese cars... In Africa it's probably even more visible...

This is a bit of an aside, but why does everyone assume, if not for the sanctions, BYD would eat Western manufacturers alive? I for one, don't like to engage in anti-China hysteria, but having had experience with Chinese products, their quality and reliablity is a hit and miss. How would you know, that they didn't cheap out on caps in inverters, and they won't break down after a decade/200k km?

Also their cars are build like modern consumer electronics, welded/glued together at every opportunity.

Take a look at this video where a guy tries to pry apart a BYD battery pack:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPTefsqNGI4

I guess BYD's strategy of world domination involves a high degree of automation, so they can make their cars in countries without a large pool of free workers/high wages, that's why they're made like this.

And here in Europe, they're not even that much cheaper, before tariffs. A Seal costs almost as much as a Model 3.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41842394 ("HN: China's Top Carmaker BYD Dominates Foreign Rivals with $14k Plug-In Hybrid")

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41841960 ("HN: VW, BMW and Mercedes Are Getting Left in the Dust by China's EVs")

BYD are literally handmade. I expect QA issues worse that Tesla’s Production Hell and in long term support. Plus, they’re doped up with subsidies like an Eastern Block Olympic Athlete; China needs to prop up its books after the Real Estate bubble turned to rubble

They seem to have significant quality issues - I have multiple friends with them in Thailand, and every second social post from them is bitching about whatever randomly stopped working or fell off this time - although I have a feeling they build their Thai market models elsewhere.

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