Here's an unintentionally hilarious meta-post on the subject https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29531915
But the rate of progress I see right now has me thinking that it may not be more than two or three years before that threshold is finally reached.
How far are we now, 6 years later than I expected?
Dunno.
I suspect it's gonna need an invention on the same level as Diffusion or Transformer models to be able to get all the edge cases we can get, and that might mean we only get it with human level AGI.
But I don't know that, it might be we've already got all we need architecture-wise and it's just a matter of scale.
Only thing I can be really sure of is we're making progress "quite fast" in a non-objective use of the words — it's not going to need a re-run of 6 million years of mammilian evolution or anything like that, but even 20 years wall clock time would be a disappointment.
They may well best Tesla to this, though.
As for whether it's worthwhile to solve that problem when having more sensors will always be safer, that's another issue...
While it ought to be possible to solve for just RGB… making it needlessly hard for yourself is a fun hack-day side project, not a valuable business solution.
On the other hand, I fear/suspect it is asymptotically, rather than linearly, approaching good enough to be unsupervised. It might get halfway there, each year, forever.