Also, they switched to USB-C in iPad before EU even introduced anything on USB-C.

I don't doubt it was in the works, but on what time frame?

Timing probably matters: when most of the market already agrees you can't wait for the last group, you have to strike before everyone defuses again.

And while I can imagine that apple had a plan here, the part that doesn't fit is that they protested the mandate. If this had no effect on their plans, why bother?

They've added repair stuff years in advance for the upcoming mandate on right to repair. Funny how they know the path they should take but don't choose to take it until there's a future mandate. Then suddenly it's "out of the goodness of our corporate heart..." and y'all eat it up & make excuses for em.