I suspect you are correct. The big question I have no answer about is what percentage of users was good with the old interface. If it was <10%, the ribbon is definitely warranted. If it was >80% ... maybe not so much.
An additional data point - my parents weren't really good with the old interface (need to call beagle3 tech support often), and the ribbon only made it harder for them (and for me, because it is harder to describe over the phone).
> Your point about licensing vs inventing a lot of the technology is fairly moot, Apple licensed a bunch of the multi-touch technology from various inventors (including the university I went to).
I don't disagree.
I'm amused that whenever someone says "Microsoft/Google is $UNFLATTERING_ADJECTIVE", the retort is "Apple is just as $UNFLATTERING_ADJECTIVE if not worse!", even if that was the first mention of Apple in the discussion.
So, to elucidate my point - the GP mentioned Kinect as a proof that Microsoft is a top notch innovator; They may very well be, but what I was saying was that Kinect is not an example for that.