Think supply and demand rather than Moore's Law. If the supply of a chip goes down (e.g., a manufacturing plant gets hit by an earthquake) or demand goes up (Apple designs the chip into the next version of the iPhone), then its price could definitely go up.

I'd guess that the markets for chips would be driven by similar dynamics as other commodities, such as oil.

Maybe the next step will be real-time feeds for chip prices, and after that people will start trading chip futures on Wall Street?