I don't understand the optimism driving the stock market. Tariffs and mass deportations and trade wars may be good for the American economy in the long term but even Elon Musk acknowledges that they are bad in the short term.

There's also no doubt that they are terrible for the global economy. These are global companies. They only make a small part of their profit in America. A boost in profit from America will be swamped by the loss of sales in Europe, Asia and elsewhere.

Then there's the spectre of retaliation. When Trump slaps on his tariffs, other countries are going to retaliate. When Trump put a tariff on steel, the EU retaliated with a tariff on American icons close to Trump's heart: Harley Davidson and Jack Daniels. This time I bet the number one target will be Twitter, with Amazon, Apple & Google not far behind.

And the economy is super fragile right now. It is in no position to withstand a trade war. The yield curve has been inverted for a record 2.5 years. Yield curve inversion has always been a signal for recession. Tariff-induced inflation will limit the ability of Fed to lower rates to compensate.

I'm selling. Luckily this insane bounce has made it much easier.