One of the things I keep meaning to read more about is Simonton's equal-odds rule of science: apparently his statistical analyses of scientific output show that scientists do not differ in 'quality' of output but instead quantity of output - the more they do and publish, the more likely they are to hit a home-run.

(This sort of huge randomness seems possible to me - I think every author or creator has the feeling, at some point, that 'X is not my best or most interesting work, why does everyone like it so much?' Certainly in reading author interviews I've noted that they seem routinely surprised that one particular novel or series took off and made them famous, rather than another.)