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Given that the sports-betting population is not entirely rational, and perhaps in predictable ways, would it be surprising if the odds that maximize profit in the real world differ from those which would be optimal given only rational and informed punters?

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Here in Australia the average punter on horse-racing is normally competing against his fellow rational and informed punters.

But every November we have a huge Melbourne Cup race where millions of people make their selection because they like the jockeys' colours or the sound of the horse's name. So the serious punters are competing against uninformed punters and on that day they are in a much better position to make some $$$.

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