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It took 30 years for computers go from entire rooms to desktops, and another 30 years to go from desktops to our pockets.

I don't know if we can extrapolate, but I can imagine AI inference on our desktops for $500 in a few years...

well, we can AI inference on our desktops for $500 today, just with smaller models and far slower.

There is no need to use smaller models. You can run the biggest models such as llama 3.1 405B on a fairly low end desktop today:

However, it will be far slower as you said.