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Comment by kjellsbells | Hacker News Reader

Sad to see Gelsinger go, but despite the churn, I don't think Intel is doomed. At worst, per their most recent Q3 results, I see $150Bn in assets and $4Bn in outstanding stock, and I see the US Gov (both incoming and outgoing) gearing up for a long war against China where Intel would be an asset of national importance.

My back of envelope calculation says Intel should be about $35 a share (150/4). If they stumble when they report Q4, I think the US Gov will twist some arms to make sure that fresh ideas make it onto the board of directors, and perhaps even make Qualcomm buy them.

I do think that Intel need to ditch some of their experiments like Mobileye. Its great (essential) to try and "rebalance their portfolio" away from server/pc chips by trying new businesses, but Mobileye hasnt grown very much.

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Nitpick: they don't have $4B in public stock, they have about 4B shares outstanding, each of which is currently trading at about $25.

Interested in your opinion, since TSMC has fabs in the US now, are Intel still relevant even in the context of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan?

I imagine it takes a lot behind the scenes - especially priceless professional experience concentrated at HQ - to know how to set up new sites, set the future direction at all levels of the organization/timeframes, etc. etc. etc. What happens to the fabs long-term if leadership from Taiwan is decapitated?

TSMC's US fabs cannot produce enough to replace all that they produce in Taiwan, nor are the US fabs producing a leading-edge node.

The next step companies (for packaging etc) are also still in Taiwan iirc, but they're more replaceable.

I would say yes. Speculation follows: If the unthinkable happens, and assuming it devolves into a cold rather than a hot war (eg the Trump administration decide not to send soldiers and weapons to Taiwan but let the Chinese have the island), then US TSMC is appropriated, Intel or AMD or Qualcomm are told to run it, and all three are instructed to ramp up manufacturing capacity as aggressively as possible. If it's more like the status quo saber rattling, then I think USG would still want a 100% domestic supplier to be acting as a second source for the local economy and a primary source for anything the defense-industrial complex needs.

Taiwanese law forbids TSMC manufacturing chips abroad using their latest process, so no 2nm in the US fabs,this leaves Intel's 18A as the mist advanced one in US soil.

TSMC Arizona 4 nm fabs are a contingency. TSMC received $6+ billion in the CHIPS and Science Act, and the fab opening is delayed until 2025 due to they don't have the local talent yet.

From what I read they have a hard time hiring for the fab in Arizona since Americans are not used to the Taiwanese work culture [1].

1. https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/ts...

how do you calculate share prices? curious

Its very back of envelope. Basically price to book value, except I didn't account for liabilities. 150B assets divided by 4B shares implies one share should account for 150/4 = $37.50-worth of the business. Its a quick sanity check but absolutely not a robust yardstick!

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