Do you think a judge would grant a preliminary injunction without merit?

To win a preliminary injunction you must show:

1. Likelihood of success on the merits

2. Irreparable harm without it

3. Balance of harms favors you

4. Injunction is in the public interest.

This lawsuit was filed by a bunch of small entities, most importantly the Libertarian Part of Mississippi, but not including Ken Paxton, and a judge already granted the injunction, so at least he thinks it has merit. By the letter of the law, it's pretty clearly unconstitutional, but under the last hundred years of precedence of allowing almost anything under the commerce clause, it's less clear. The biggest issue with the CTA is definitely that it affects some non-profits. Arguing that requiring local non-profits to report their managers to the feds is "regulating interstate commerce" is a stretch for even the most liberal courts.