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Comment by nine_k | Hacker News Reader

The problem is not the absolute number of people, but the ratio of relatively younger people who work and produce something, and the elderly who already are too frail and can only consume (pensions, medical care, etc).

Japan has now fewer productive workers per elderly person than most developed countries.

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Even if the birth rate suddenly tripled, it wouldn't solve that issue for at least a generation. There's going to have to be other solutions, maybe in the form of automation/robotics/etc in conjunction with societal/economic changes. I wouldn't be surprised if the older population resists necessary changes and exacerbates the problem, though.

A change to immigration policy could solve the issue within years, but Japan seems like the least likely nation to embrace that approach.

Solving in a generation is fine if it starts now. GP is talking about a projection 100 years out.

==Japan has now fewer productive workers per elderly person than most developed countries.==

Maybe, over the long run, we could change the expectation that elderly people can't be productive. Perhaps eliminating 20% of the workweek will allow people to maintain careers that are longer? The need to race towards retirement may lessen if we ease the burden of our weekly work schedule.

I don't see many of my 40-ish age who live healthy enough by exercising, going to work by bike or walking instead of car, so they can still be active, let alone productive when they enter retirement age.

I'm not sure I follow your comment. It's possible that AI will change the idea of who can be productive, just as the internet has changed the idea of who can be productive (people with limited mobility, for example).

Oh the productivity fallacy. AI making your job easier and saving you an hour a day doesn't mean that you'll spend this hour to do sport or even be able to use that hour as you please. We have cars (after trains, bicycles and horses) to get faster from A to B but at the same time the commute to work has grown. Many machines have been invented over the last millennia, yet we use this gain in productivity not to have more leisure time but to enforce consumerism onto the workers.

A lot of elderly Japanese already keep working well into old age. Some do it for health reasons (physical and mental), financial reasons, or out of something like civic pride/need to contribute to society. The problem is the sector of jobs that elderly people can't do.

It's just biology. People in their 70s and older are very likely to have physical and/or cognitive issues that substantially reduce their potential productivity. This is one of many reasons we should prioritize preventing and repairing the effects of aging, but until that happens it's going to be a problem.

It's just fear mongering, maybe they are like 10% less productive every decade-group after 60 on average, but it's hard to tell considering people leave the work force at 65. I'd wager that they are more productive on average than 20-30 year olds unless they have dementia.

Having an older population is only a problem if want unskilled labor to remain cheap relative to it's social value. The whole world has seen from America that relying on an immigrant underclass creates too many negative externalities for the price saved, I doubt Japan will copy this plan, they will just bite the bullet, pay more, and then act surprised when NEETs decide to work.

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