I think it actually says more that Google was willing to pay that much... for what, exactly?

As for the merits of not taking the deal, I think we should be clear – the early investors and many early employees have done alright and most likely won't be losing their shirt like any of the recent investors:

http://allthingsd.com/20110602/where-did-groupons-billion-do...

Also, fwiw, this post seems to be fairly well thought out and it is clearly from before the IPO, so it's worth looking back on with fresh eyes: http://shortlogic.com/post/6142108636/groupon-ipo-pass-on-th...