TikTok's Future in the US Is Unclear | Hacker News Reader

TikTok's Future in the US Is Unclear

wired.com

8 pointsmarban8 comments

The potential buyers mentioned in this article are not serious players. None of them are capable of raising the sums required to buy TikTok even in a distressed situation.

As it is now the most rational thing for bytedance is to leave the US market for now, and focus on the rest of the world.

I think it’s still possible for them to potentially evade sanctions using third-party app stores and continue to operate while continuing to legally fight US government efforts, as domestic companies would do.

We live in a post competency environment currently, so if you can ignore and/or evade, why not?

No. As the law is, tiktok will become inaccessible in the US both as an app and as a web app.

It’ll be whack a mole. The US government can gate at primary mobile app stores easily (applying pressure to Google and Apple), but nowhere else.

The current US presence is hosted by Oracle. That would end as it would cause Oracle to be fined, and the content moved outside the US. The direct oversite by the US government via Oracle would end. Access by US users would have to be via web since App Store distribution would subject Google and Apple to fines.

Yes, agreed. Distribution by side loading or third party app stores enabled by recent anti trust rulings are outside of the centralized App Store control you mention. Hosting and storage at an org without a US entity within reach of the jurisdiction.

Bad for Oracle, troublesome for Bytedance, but the band plays on.

Rational from what perspective? The US is a top market for TikTok in terms of revenue and users. Bytedance isn’t just some cohort of Chinese bureaucrats with bottomless pockets sitting in Beijing. Its major investors and BoD include large global VCs and individual investors who are not going to walk away from a successful app that prints money. Ironically the way TikTok’s presence is built and audited by Ellison and Co in the US is far more secure than if it were sitting outside of the US.

Rational in terms of money risk/reward.

What can be sold of is TikTok international - not just the US part - in a fair market - say sold via an IPO - that would be worth hundreds of billions.

It is simply a better deal to exit the US market and still have something plus the chance of return rather than to sell at a very depressed price.

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