US enters recession in Q1 2025. There's no "soft landing". The correlation between federal interest rate cuts and recessions perfectly predicts this.
Also, most Americans’ tax advantaged retirement accounts (via 401Ks) are locked in with consistent contributions to diversified index funds or ETFs containing primarily large market cap companies that make up a majority of the stock market.
If you can reliably make accurate predictions, then why on earth would you be talking about it instead of making the correspond bet via some combination of securities?
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/22/buffett-heads-into-2025-with...
It is really a great example of how much human knowledge is really just the repeating of a standardized, agreed upon orthodoxy that has little to do with reality. In the 21st century the "expert" in various forms reinforces the orthodoxy far beyond the 20th century.
Economics can't even catch up to the 1980s and dynamic systems.