https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38614465
Reading through the two 2024 threads I'm struck that most predictions a) were completely wrong b) reflected more what people wanted to happen rather than what was likely.
Edit: now that I've read through this thread I'll add c) were much more hopeful than this year's predictions.
There is a discipline to making predictions (Phil Tetlock has observed a few traits: avoiding base rate fallacies, working in probabilities not binaries, making falsifiable predictions, and continuously updating).
None of the predictions here do that, so we shouldn’t expect any kind of reasonable hit rate.
It’s just end of year fun.
But with that said I will now post my predictions for 2025 :-).
I think that is true of most predictions.