That the crippled plane was diverted to Aktau in the hope it would vanish into the sea weighs heavy in the article. I wonder what the real story is. Because I can't think that this plan was on the operator's mind. I also know I'm too naive sometimes.
It is likely a mix of pilot decision making and lack of 'agility' of the plane (it's movement are coherent with hydraulic control issues). Great pilot btw, will need a medal
Grozny had two fogs when the shooting occurred, a physical one, natural, making it hard to land, and an electronic one (constant above russian infrastructure close enough to Ukraine), making the landing harder to dangerous. I haven't looked into it, but I would bet that the pilot was circling the airport before being shot.
Probably an iff failure on Russian air defence: we know that at least 7 of their own military planes being shot by their own air defense.
That sounds plausible to me that the route over open water appeared least risky. Once the Russian airports declined an emergency landing.
they could simply ALLOW to land airplane on they land and hide what happen (similar to what they did with CEO of Total airplane or Polish presedent "accidents").
Plus this might save everyone on the plane, case it might had enough brake fluids and other liquids to make a safe landing.
But no their decided to sink it in the sea to hide any possible proofs.