By 2008ish, maybe before, they were telling us all the jobs would go to India, and aren't coming back. The 2010s proved that wrong.
Too much doom and gloom here. I understand why, it sucks losing your job and searching. It'll come roaring back like it always does, especially as rates fall. We haven't even scratched the surface of smart AI application. I can't wait to see what we come up with.
I just hope these folks can survive or get by until then.
Today we are living in a reality created by FAANGs (and those who copied) who over recruited everyone so that other FAANGs could not get them. Employee count became connected to valuations. Which created insane fake demand which increased graduate numbers and let companies import people. Companies like facebook doubled their staff count in a year and a half during covid lockdowns.
Then interest rates went up and companies realized they don't need most people and then AI hit and shifted more budgets.
Recover to when? Part of the recovery is happening. Students are choosing other majors. Importing people will probably slow. The ratio of people to jobs is getting slightly better with people leaving the field. As wages and interest rates keep getting lower we'll hit a point where developers will be in demand again but AI might have taken your role by that point. Not to worry new jobs will be created somewhere doing something AI can't.
The entire time (past 10 years minimum) the relative volume of skilled engineers and the demand for them (do not confuse that with open job postings) has been constant. In my opinion of course.