What Will Happen in 2025

is this written by a VC? seems quite egoistical with a few common stats known already to hedge risks of looking like an idiot

i love how quickly HN ignored this submission. I think the BS detection is stronger than ever

I think some of these are purposefully vague, but I've been following Fred for a while and his predictions are often pretty good.

Many will likely 'technically' happen, but probably not in full. Which I think is a sign of good predictions.

I.e -- an animated film that uses AI significantly is nominated. An AI 'doctor', for some unconventional definition of doctor, becomes popular. The air taxis launch and have flights, but are exclusive and not widely popular (eVTOL become akin to the current helicopter subscriptions to the airports, certainly not replacing the L anytime soon).

I think a few of those predictions are a bit of a reach for 2025. A few I doubt will ever happen.

What they're doing with ESA in Arizona sounds interesting. If the school is failing the student why shouldn't they have the option of going someplace else?

1/ Apple and Google will leverage their existing market power to surpass OpenAI/ChatGPT in consumer AI prompts by the end of 2025.

- Could be, for a suite of new features LLMs are a good primitive, most people actually don't need super human intelligence, the non-tech people I know have always defaulted to the lowest common denominator (cheap or easy). 80% agree.

2/ Waymo will surpass Uber in rides taken in San Franciso and Los Angeles by the end of 2025.

- I started a whole startup that was somewhat predicated on self driving cars becoming normal by 2025, I could write a book on why I agree with this one, so we'll see what happens, my only modifier would be maybe not waymo but another company? Funnily enough Fred passed on my startup with something very similar to: "this VC doesn't like to lose money", hehe. :)

3/ Direct bank to bank payments will surpass credit card interchange payments in a few categories in the US in 2025.

- Europe, Asia and Canada have long enjoyed this for many categories, FedNow is on the rise, much like credit card fees. A bit cheap not to name the categories, but if he means things like subscriptions where usually credit card, I'd be surprised.

4/ A decentralized clinical trial attracts millions of participants and produces a favorable outcome and Trump's FDA not only approves the drug but celebrates the approach.

- If apple worked with the FDA, maybe. 60%. DCTs are on the rise.

5/ A housekeeper robot named Judy is launched by Dyson and it becomes a massive success, selling millions of units.

- 0% on the name, 40% on the business, 70% on the overall idea. Millions of units by the end of next year, unlikely because the supply chains won't scale quickly enough (unless they are very far along) but I doubt they would ramp up a new category without teasing it.

6/ NFT Art, left for dead at the end of 2024, makes a remarkable comeback and the MOMA purchases The 6529 Museum Of Art for an undisclosed sum.

- Hmmm, I was on the team that build deviantart back in the day, I think an NFT is fine as a certificate of authenticity replacement, I agree they will make a comeback, I would be very surprised in MOMA buys that unless Fred gives MOMA a donation to buy that.

7/ An AI doctor with the personality of Mr Rogers will treat millions of patients at zero cost in 2025.

- I think this is already happening to some degree? By some measure I'd already check this off so I'm not sure where his line for treatment is drawn.

8/ A bitcoin mining operation will pair with a wind farm in Newfoundland and grid scale battery storage to power an AI data center showcasing a new model for sustainable infrastructure.

- Oddly specific, so... 100%?

9/ Arizona's ESA program attracts over 25% of K12 students in the state, leading to a number of local school closures.

- 80% - this is just pointing to a tailwind.

10/ An AI produces an animated feature film that is nominated for an Oscar.

- 90% on the first part. 50/50 on how good it is. 0% Oscar.

11/ An air taxi service launches in New York City offering an alternative to the L train commute.

- 0% but nice pipe dream my man. Also L train is commute is what life is made for so, 0%x2

12/ TikTok turns all videos into memecoins that can be traded on decentralized exchanges all over the world.

- 0%. Nobody cares.

13/ The USV Librarian goes rogue, gets access to USV's crypto wallet, and starts making seed investments, one of which turns into a fund returner.

- 0% and also a parlay into 70% someone else who isn't the librarian steals USV's crypto wallet in 2025.