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Comment by tikkun | Hacker News Reader

Another fire project idea: show, based on some kind of prediction model that gives 50th, 90th, 99th percentiles (from historical data, perhaps, or perhaps just from wind/fire speeds), how fast a given fire could reach a specific location.

Whenever I've opened watch duty, that's always the question I'm asking. How long might it take to reach [here/there]?

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It’s a very dangerous answer to try to give someone, because of how unpredictable and dangerous a wildfire is. Sudden shifts in winds and can have the flames jump (literally) miles in minutes, after sitting calmly for hours.

It isn’t theoretical either - it kills professionals too. [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mann_Gulch_fire], [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Canyon_Fire], [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dude_fire] for a few examples.

Long story short - never turn your back on a wildfire, and try to stay as far away as possible.

Right, they seem highly volatile/variable. The thinking is that showing the 99th percentile / range of possibilities would cover that, if it's based on historical data - does that seem right to you or no, and if not why not?

It would be like if someone you never met came up to you and held a revolver to your head, and told you they were going to play Russian roulette.

If they told you the 99% percentile odds of the next trigger pull, would it be okay to stay if you thought you liked the odds?

And if you were silly enough to believe him, who would be to blame if he was wrong?

Oh, here are some more [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yarnell_Hill_Fire]. Oh and [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_Griffith_Park_fire]. And [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackwater_Fire_of_1937]

There is a reason why firefighters are considered to be one of the most heroic professionals.

And some more (not all related to wildfires though) [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_deadliest_firefi...]

Prisoners one day, hero firefighters earning a dollar an hour the next.

https://www.businessinsider.com/california-fire-inmate-firef...

The authorities already do the type of broad analysis you're suggesting. That's how they generate the evacuation maps.

If you mean a more specific analysis: there's no way to do that with a level of detail or accuracy that would be relevant to individual decision-making. There are simply too many variables in the air, in the fuel, and even in the fire itself.

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