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Comment by rapsey | Hacker News Reader

Economists say China needs to move to a consumer economy. The export model has run out of steam. But turning to a consumer economy is diametrically opposed to the communist party. Just like the soviets, their model works for a while but the inability to switch gears or relinquish any amount of control will be their doom.

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Doom in which way? Russia is not going anywhere, population is in complete acceptance of current state (despite everybody complaining, but thats nothing new). Chinese seem the same, don't take some isolated protests from time to time in 1.5 billion population as sign of things breaking apart. They will be probably fine, whether we like it or not.

You are equating the soviet union with Russia. Their economic model was quite different and caused mass famines and eventual collapse.

As for going away, the demographic picture for both countries is horrific. China is in a recession and the one thing they need to do is the one thing Xi is diametrically opposed to and he calls all the shots.

Sovjet union was a donut empire- all value generated was produced in the ring around the empire core and then exported to russia.

There were no famines in the USSR from 1947 to 1991.

Xi has been publicly touting how China needs to convert to more of a consumer economy for its next phase of development.

https://www.chinabankingnews.com/p/xi-wants-to-create-a-nati...

This article just says what some economist thinks should happen. Not what Xi plans to do.

> The Central Economic Work Conference held in December called for “vigorously spurring consumption,” to deal with weak domestic demand and over reliance on exports.

The Central Economic Work Conference is a CCP event where they announce the current direction of the Chinese economy for the year, and is headed by Xi.

Yes but the entire content of the article was taken from what that economist thinks should happen. Not what the actual plans are. The communist party has done no course correction at all so far and the actual decision what to do can only come from Xi.

The statements at the CEWC are endorsements from Xi. He literally talked about boosting consumption at his keynote there.

And that's a key piece of the current 5 year plan. The CCP is actively executing on converting the Chinese economy to more of a consumption based economy.

Talk is cheap. China shifting their economic model would be a geopolitical event of the decade. Nothing other than talk has happened.

What would be evidence for you?

Because the party is actually only reacting way to late to events. Want to know how they plan economically in reality? Look at the botched covid pandemic- that was a pulse (the pandemic) and the party reacting to it. Now you know about capabilities and reaction speeds of the CCP in the most dire of emergencies.

Frankly, looking at pictures and videos from China, it looks nothing like the Soviet Union- it looks modern, rich, technologically advanced, full of people looking and acting like westerners. They might need to expand their internal markets and consume more, but any comparison with soviet Russia is absurd.

Classic westerners mistake. Thinking economic development means adoption of western values and rationality. Ignoring the parallels with the soviet union is ignorance. Xi has publicly said the collapse of the soviet union is the biggest tragedy of the 20th century. Xi has studied the soviet union extensively and thinks the state must never relinquish any control whatsoever to avoid their fate.

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