My pet theory is that their disappearance is tied closely to the cost of land. I see US-based hardware hobbyists' shops on YouTube, and I think "I couldn't even afford to build a shed that big". The tools themselves are often actually pretty cheap second hand at auction, because the demand is so low, but I live on the back of a postage stamp in comparison with those guys.
(Another possibility is simply that software ate the world.)
The council housing provided an option at a base price, private landlords could not compete if they also had to pay for the mortgage, at a time when interest rates were a lot higher.
Once the council housing was sold off, there was no longer this base price, unless you wanted to spend five years on the list for a housing association, as in the privatised council housing estate.
This change meant that the best place for your money was in property. Property was no longer a near-depreciating asset, house price inflation went through the roof, but was not part of the inflation index.
Since then the economy has been that of rent-seeking. There is no point making stuff as you might as well sell the premises to a developer to convert into luxury flats, which then get bought by rent-seekers and rented out to people that would have had a full-feature council house in previous times.
When a rent-seeker has income from one property, they can remortgage to buy another, then use leverage to buy more and more.
Rent-seeking is not adding anything to the economy, no product is made. However, rent-seekers vote Conservative.
In an economy where everyone has to pay more for the parasites that are the rent-seekers, the cost of labour goes up. This is just because people need more money to pay to have a roof over their head, not because they want gold taps.
This is the root cause of the decline of the West, you are probably old enough to remember how this capital from rent-seeking spread out from London to even the slowest seaside town. Wherever it went, businesses stopped making stuff and started importing instead. Once that business of making stuff has gone, it never comes back.
The real value is in making stuff even though there is plenty of profit in retail, 'no product is made'. Furthermore, it is not possible to stop someone from doing the same as you, buying widgets from China, marking them up and flogging them with an English manual.
In the USA the situation is the same in the big cities. In the flyover states there is a different Ponzi scheme afoot, with vast tracts of suburbia built but without the long-term tax base to maintain the roads and other infrastructure indefinitely. So long as there is cheap oil and the dollar is the reserve currency, it all works with printing money, with the world taking the inflation hit, not the USA.
The sheds you see full of toys are not in New York, they will be somewhere such as Florida or Texas.
In Thomas Friedman's latest nyt column, he refers to China's manufacturing dominance as a play to de-industrializing other countries. It may just be globalization is incompatible with political realities.
The US.
But 4 year election cycles and quarterly earning reports are incompatible with long-term planning.
Everything has trade-offs.
America is 300 Million. Europe is almost a Billion. These populations are more than large enough to specialize in everything.
>Everyone is better off because of specialization.
Why?
My impression is that population size is not very relevant in the math of trade specialization profit. It's still more profitable to play on relative strengths and weaknesses. You can find other things to worry about like security (from droughts and earthquakes perhaps), or political or strategic desires. In particular, trade is likely beneficial even when local production would be cheaper than remote production - just because there are other things that can be done localy and even stronger (like phone games or advertising-oriented browser feature destruction /s).
>In particular, trade is likely beneficial even when local production would be cheaper than remote production - just because there are other things that can be done localy and even stronger
This only matters if you can not do both. If your population is large the amount of things which it can do especially good can easily be exhausted before you run out of people.
I don't even see how you can specialize. What does China specialize in? (Before answering, think about the things which China is not trying to produce or the services it is not trying to perform. Can you name even one?)
It's not that anyone needs to specialize as in "otherwise it won't work". It's that it's more profitable and so people will tend to prefer that plus some extra money in their pocket.
And it's not specialize as in only do wine, cheese and perfume and nothing else. It's systematically favor some things that you are relatively better at than others, and trade for the others (not even 100%, you can export some plastic parts and import some similar plastic parts at the same time). Even if the other country could themselves be better at it. So for France, engineering of all kinds, wine, cheese, perfume, meds, etc but also any manufacturing that by chance has gotten and remained strong (say, like airplanes, some electrical equipment, whatever else that really any other country also could possibly manufacture).
I do not think that Europe or the US even could specialize in anything. The population is so large that for every good and service needed there is a group of people who are specializing in it right now.
What single good/service is not at all produced in Europe. Which single good/service is not produced in China?
At the scale of 1B people specialization becomes meaningless. You can't even accomplish it if you wanted to. All you could do is letting one of your industries get out competed by some other power.
The specialization you ... expect? is irrelevant.
Business jets are not produced in China, large efficient passenger jets are not produced in China, printed silk scarves branded Hermes, silent diesel electric submarines for export are not produced in China. (See what I did there?) And that's irrelevant to why trade exists.
Even an up-to-the-minute super competitive manufacturer has no incentive (except political and some risk-aversion) to do everything in-house or in one country. It does have incentives to trade with other countries and other companies. Even if it possibly had the machines and low cost employees on hand and already trained to do that, from an economics point of view it should (in the long term), sell some production units, focus on the others and trade for the difference.
Literally every single one of these is false. China is producing every single one of these things.
Business Jet: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comac_C909
Large efficient passenger jet: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comac_C919
Hermes: China is well known for producing knockoff products. 0% chance that some Chinese factory is not making Hermes branded scarfs.
Silent diesel electric submarines for export: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_039A_submarine (Yes, they are actually made for export)
I think it is pretty clear that you are totally and utterly wrong.
In a broader sense, I'd say that America is headed down the same road the UK is too. We expect people to pay hand-over-fist for our tech talent that isn't any better than what you can get in Pakistan or China. Our hard markets are getting bearish, our leadership wants to de-globalize, and American tech wants to maintain global control without acquiescing to local governance.
America had the economic lead before WWI and after WWII, but now we've bet the farm on our ability to market bullshit. America's national economy cannot survive if the App Store and ChatGPT are our premier exports.
This to me is a super interesting example. Nobody but nobody NEEDS a unibody aluminum anything. But it's cool, light, beautiful - and sells great - so it's what gets produced even when the only place that makes sense for that is China. The Macbook could temporarily return to more manageable production - like plastic - and the world would not end.
If we are going to blame something I would think it's the chinese enthusiasm for capitalist business development.
It's not the chinese State Owned Enterprises that earn american contracts, mostly. Not to mention Foxconn being a taiwanese company that earned that business in the US to begin with (and only later moved it to mainland china.)
There's little appetite to join the American one, as it would mean lowering standards (food etc) which ruins Britain's specialties.
Food is cheap in Britain, cost and supply aren't problems.
How so? If you aren't willing to buy from China many products will become unavailable and the rest will go up 10x in price.
Disentangling yourself from the global economic system is hard and painful, especially if you have just disentangled yourself from one super block.