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AI will improve at an exponential rate once it can independently improve AI performance. For example. Once AI can organically identify, test, confirm, deploy an improvement like R1 vs o1 (in terms of perf/watt) then we'll see exponential improvement. Honestly though, that still seems possible within 5 years or less, maybe 3.

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Only if the AI can do it faster than humans.

And if the improvements it makes are not asymptotically diminishing.

>Honestly though, that still seems possible within 5 years or less, maybe 3.

If that is a normal human estimation I would guess in reality it is more likely to be in 6-10 years. Which is still good if we get it in 2030 - 2035.

For futurism on things that promise economic rewards, exponential increases are not uncommon.

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