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I think less of that and more of real risks - Nvidia legitimately has the earnings right now. The question is how sustainable that is, when most of it is coming from 5 or so customers that are both motivated and capable of taking back those 90% margins for themselves

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They don't have anything close to the earnings to justify the price they have reached.

They are getting a lot of money, but their stock price is in a completely different universe. Not even that $500G deal people announced, if spent exclusively on their products could justify their current price. (Nah, notice that just the change on their valuation is already larger than that deal.)

Their forward PE is fairly reasonable: Nvidia 27, Apple 31, Amazon 38, Microsoft 33.

Regarding their earnings at the moment, I know it doesn't mean everything, but a ~50 P/E is still fairly high, although not insane. I think Ciscos was over 200 during the dotcom bubble. I think your question about the 5 major customers is really interesting, and we will continue to see those companies peck at custom silicon until they can maybe bridge the gap from just running inference to training as well.

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