There's a much better heuristic. Just look at the contracts that the model providers (MS, Google et al) have recently, suddenly established to buy lots of electricity, spin up nuclear power plants and so on. That's the giveaway and one that doesn't need any calculations. Plus the hundreds of billions being invested in datacentres purely for these models.
You see it in this very comment section, lots of naysayers purely based off the provided, utterly meaningless numbers, when the above facts say it all and renders everything else moot. If the training and inference wouldn't cost insane amounts of energy, they wouldn't be hastily taking up these contracts and investing such obscene amounts in datacentres. That's all you need to know.