I read around that DeepSeek's team managed to work-around hardware limitations, and that in theory goes against the "gatekeeping" or "frontrunning" investment expectations from nvidia. If a partial chunk of investment is a bet on those expectations, that would explain a part of the stock turbulence. I think their 25x inference price reduction vs openai is what really affected everything, besides the (uncertain) training cost reduction.

Imagine an s-curve relating capital expenditure on compute and "performance" as the y-axis. It's possible that this does not change the upper bound of the s-curve but just shifts the performance gains way to the left. Such a scenario would wipe out a huge amount of the value of Nvidia.