Thanks for posting this. A few seconds before the eight-minute mark, Vinge says that he expects the Singularity to occur before 2030 assuming that (A.) it is technologically possible and (B.) no disasters (e.g. a nuclear war) derails us before that point.
Where's the actual interview? All I see here is some third-person statements about Vernor's beliefs, and two quoted paragraphs without the question that prompted them.