Xamarin puts out a quality product, they should charge a price for it relative to the value it can bring a MOTIVATED developer. And if we want to use it we should pay for it. I don't want to wake up tomorrow to see that they dropped the price to 5 bucks hoping to win on volume only to find out soon afterward that Microsoft paid them 25 million to stop development.
As for the paid product, we issue a no-questions-asked refund to anyone who requests it within some reasonable amount of time (30 days usually). Even with this, our refund rate is less than 1%.
That said, I totally understand if that's not a market Xamarin wants to be in.
E.g.: "Pay only after you earn your first 100$" but along with "NO WARRANTY" and "no support" and maybe "without IDE, only cmd line tools and SDK" but that would be an extreme - still, better than nothing.
I think this will _tremendously_ boost your user base.
All in all, you will cover a new target market with retaining the existing market.
Anyway, thanks for the great product!
EDIT: the market you actually will loose (in "no support" users) - are the users who didn't succeed. Not sure if you can track the numbers, that would help to determine if this business model will be positive for you.
Frankly speaking, if 400$ for a product like MonoTouch is risk for you then you probably shouldn't be developing commercial software which you sell for money.
What I have an objection to is the idea of 'pay if I succeed' model. Clearly the OP is not talking about a silly app given away for free. He wants to make money selling software but refuses to pay for tools which can help him create the software faster.
(and using objective C/XCode are pretty much at the bottom of my list of things I ever want to do in my life)
It would also be a good teaser to make me pay the full price once I've used it for a while.
Edit: what is "risk free"?