I get this argument, but it feels we cannot always reason by analogy. Some jumps are qualitatively different. We cannot always claim "this didn't happen before, therefore it won't happen now".

Of course assemblers didn't create fewer programming jobs, nor did compilers or high level languages. However, with "NO CODE" solutions (remember that fad?) there was an attempt at reducing the need for programmers (though not completely taking them out of the equation)... it's just that NO CODE wasn't good enough. What if AI is good enough?