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Comment by aimazon | Hacker News Reader

My $100k line of credit against my house was approved today. I plan to pay off my house with the gains.

Please consider getting in touch with a problem gambling hotline. This isn't Internet snark--going into debt to play the stock market game is a serious red flag.

I assumed it was a joke.

But yeah, absurdity:10 does not mean insincere!

You sound like the people who were buying "shitcoins" in the cryptocurrency frenzy.

Best of luck (you'll absolutely need luck, because that's a stupid move).

Only if you are shorting :-)

Realistically, in the long run Nvidia's stock will soar. I can't believe people will think otherwise.

I wish I was so confident about future events.

Careful what you wish for, sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.

Realistically, in the long run everything goes to zero.

The market can stay irrational for longer than...

NVDA's market cap was already 12.5% of the entire yearly US-GDP, at a P/E of 10 or 20 once their growth slows to me that implies that their profits are expected to be 0.5-1% of the US GDP. Just nvda alone, not the LLM foundation models + application layers and so on built on top their hardware.

Even in the most optimistic case, I find it hard to imagine that nvidia alone captures much more than 1% of the US GDP as profits for the next 20 years or whatever their investor's horizon is.

Nvidia's P/E numbers are lower than almost all of their major competitors. You can't look at Nvidia's ratio alone and say "this seems overvalued" without also acknowledging the fact that the entire industry looks ridiculous by the same analysis.

I'd even agree with that argument, I just don't think it's the one you're making.

I think we agree - my response was narrowed to respond to "NVDA is going to soar". The whole segment looks overvalued and the implication (at least to me) seems to be that AI will capture 10-20% of GDP in profits (not even revenue) starting soon for 10-ish years.

I don't have the numbers, but I wonder how "internet company" (very loosely) profits compare to GDP - I could imagine the AI ecosystem reaching similar profits eventually.

Btw, imo their P/E is mostly this good because they're currently selling hardware at margins better than many software companies, I doub that this will/can last. For example, when FB/MS each are spending $50B+/a on GPUs, can they justify say $100M/a on a crack software dev team to make their stack work on other GPUs (ie replace the oft-argued CUDA moat within a year or two)?

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