As a big C# proponent, my gut tells me the JVM probably has the edge here, but it's not a clean sweep. The CLR has areas where it excels. I would also freely admit that the Java ecosystem is far larger and more mature. The NuGet ecosystem is no slouch, however.
But if I were a gambling man, I would bet that AOT compilation will become much more widespread in the .NET ecosystem while Oracle will ensure that you have to pay the piper for GraalVM to do anything interesting. Call it a hunch.