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Comment by butterlettuce | Hacker News Reader

Fellas, I got a question.

Is it really safe to fly these days if this is now a national discussion?

It has always been and will continue to be more safe than driving to the airport. The fact that something extraordinarily safe is potentially less safe is a topic for discussion, but not at the expense of realizing the relative risks of everything else.

Prior to the midair at DCA, there had not been a fatal (edit) airliner crash in this country since 2009, and there had not been a midair collision involving an airliner since the 1970s. The fact that some people have an irrational fear of flying does not justify that irrational fear dictating policy any more than people who have an irrational fear of clowns wanting them banned.

But is it as safe today as it was a year ago today?

Statistically, yes.

Based on what data? In 2024 there were 0 domestic airline collisions in 16 million flights, in 2025 there was 1 in 1.3 million.

Which is statistically the same number.

Then we are looking at the wrong (meaningless) statistics. The while point of stats is to turn data into meaningful distillatios of trends so that we can act upon them. If plane crash deaths are increasing and its not shown in the stats, then we need better stats no?

Are you trying to "lie with statistics" or find a truth. Right now there is not data showing things are getting worse - this looks like random rare events. If things are slightly worse is will take a while to figure that out.

How many crashes do the statistics allow before they start reflecting a different answer to my question?

Where are your dates from? According to the Wikipedia page, there have been multiple fatal plane crashes in the US since 2009, including a midair collision in 2019 (although not an airliner).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fatal_accidents_and_...

The parent commenter misspoke; they meant there was not a fatal accident involving a commercial airliner from 2009 to 2025. Commercial aviation is much more highly regulated, and much safer, than general aviation.

Nope, sorry, that page describes multiple commercial accidents resulting in fatalities, since 2009.

The Asiana crash at SFO had multiple fatalities, and was in 2013.

From the Wikipedia page:

“This is a list of fatal commercial aviation accidents and incidents in or in the vicinity of the United States or its territories. It comprises a subset of both the list of accidents and incidents involving airliners in the United States and the list of accidents and incidents involving commercial aircraft. It does not include fatalities due to accidents and incidents solely involving private aircraft or military aircraft.”

The 2009 fact is commercial US airlines, specifically

There are fatal plane crashes in the US every year - in General Aviation (which often may not talk to ATC at all). Important to make the distinction :-)

I meant airliner crash.

whats the current miles driven vs miles flown vs death rates of both? Not taking a side, I'm just curious here.

> The fact that something extraordinarily safe is potentially less safe is a topic for discussion, but not at the expense of realizing the relative risks of everything else.

Given the leadership, I don't trust it to not get less safe, fast. We're not in statistically normal times. I highly doubt it's a coincidence that Trump fires various controllers and less than a week later we get that first midair collision in 16 years.

You can talk statistics, but the physics are another magnitude. I get in a really bad wreck and car safety standards may let me walk away without a scratch. No amount of safety can protect against a multi thousand foot droop from freefall.

> The fact that some people have an irrational fear of flying does not justify that irrational fear dictating policy

Go tell that to the casualties. Oh wait, you can't. Which part of them being dead is irrational exactly?

As with all things in current news: yes.

The reason this (and Boeing before it) are in the news is because the US air system is incredibly safe.

For perspective, there are ~27,000 US passenger flights per day. [0]

I think the last commercial US passenger carrier midair collision was in 1990? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mid-air_collisions

[0] https://www.airlines.org/impact/

Here's a study[0] looking at data from 2022 that says flying keeps getting safer. The press release[1] has some nice quotes:

> “You might think there is some irreducible risk level we can’t get below,” adds Barnett, a leading expert in air travel safety and operations. “And yet, the chance of dying during an air journey keeps dropping by about 7 percent annually, and continues to go down by a factor of two every decade.”

0: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S09696...

1: https://news.mit.edu/2024/study-flying-keeps-getting-safer-0...

I think the grandparent comment is asking within the context of the past couple of weeks.

Not saying that your sources aren't useful or anything.

USA Air Traffic deaths spiked back in 2018 during the Boeing 737 Max debacle. They have declined since then. With the introduction of ADS-B things are only getting safer for commercial air travel. A lack of ATC personnel will probably just mean airport delays and cancelled flights. They can't get any more tired and burnt out than they are now.

No, the 737 Max didn't cause any fatalities in the US.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air_Flight_610

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian_Airlines_Flight_302

Ahh, you're right, I was looking at international data. Thank you! This is the USA data:

https://www.bts.gov/content/us-air-carrier-safety-data

Define safe. A fully loaded 747 could crash in the US every day and you’d still have a 99.98% chance of being fine when you fly.

(Approximate numbers: 3M US passengers per day, 600 people on a 747).

I don't think there can be a single simple answer to that question.

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