1. The intelligence of an AI model roughly equals the log of the resources used to train and run it.
2. The cost to use a given level of AI falls about 10x every 12 months, and lower prices lead to much more use.
3. The socioeconomic value of linearly increasing intelligence is super-exponential in nature.
1 is plainly false. Enormous ressources have been poured into models since the end 2023 and the "intelligence" (for lack of a better term) has stayed roughly the same, around the level of GPT-4. Nothing has happened since then.
3 is a philosophical opinion, not based on any falsifiable evidence.
All in all: mostly FUD, as per the usual MO.
Not a curve to be happy about TBH. You need to simultaneously find big efficiency wins and drive up costs substantially to get 4-5x improvements, and it is probably impossible to maintain good year on year improvements after the first 2-3 years when you get all the low hanging fruit.
You need to spend some quality time with o1-pro and/or Gemini Pro 2.0 Experimental. It is not the case that there has been no progress since GPT4. CoT reasoning is a BFD.
this would be true only for people who have used the same model since 2023 :) Jesus!