I read in Supermen (book on Cray) that the test moratorium was a strategic advantage for the US since labs here could simulate nuclear weapons using HPC systems.
In another clips he says that he believes it was inevitable that the Soviets would come up with an H-bomb on their own.
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zx1JTLrhbnI&list=PLVV0r6CmEs...