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Comment by wolvesechoes | Hacker News Reader

"I quite like the idea of a united EU army."

Won't happen, at least not in any meaningful form.

Baltics or Poland are existentially threatened by Russia, Spain or even Germany are not, even if Russia can do a limited damage to them. What is supposed to create "unity" in that regard? What would force Spain to contribute as much as, let's say, Finland? We can see even now, with all these US threats, not every NATO country was willing to increase its spending on military. And even more importantly, who is going to command such EU army? Commission?

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Baltics and Poland are only threatened by Russian TV commentators and sometimes Dugin, who depending on the mood of the day says that Poland and the Baltics are not part of the Eurasian project, and on other days says that Estonia is in the German influence sphere (!) but Latvia and Lithuania are in the Russian sphere. These people foam at the mouth and have little influence.

I have never heard any serious Russia politician claim that the Baltics or Poland should be invaded.

Ukraine and Georgia are fundamentally different (for them), which is why they always have been red lines as pointed out in the Burns diplomatic telegram.

Invasion is not necessary. It is sad that any discussion limits politics and rivalry between countries to full-scale invasion.

Poland and Russia have opposing interests. Period. Russia wants to be a part of Europe, Poland doesn't want Russia to be a part of Europe. Poland wants to be sovereign country that keeps growing economically, Russia doesn't want that. Russia doesn't need to invade Poland, it is enough to "reshape the European Security Architecture", reduce Polish chances to develop and growth etc.

> Russia wants to be a part of Europe

Doubtful.

I mean, they are quite open about it.

Europe is not limited to EU or shared Western values of human rights and democracy.

They want to be part of the European economy. Just like Ukraine.

Of course, Ukraine was willing to undergo the required reforms. Russia and Putin is far too proud and suspicious of the West to do that.

well until 2022 no serious Russian politician (is there such a thing among the sock puppets ?) said Ukraine needed a invasion . Dictatorships.. if the boss pops a hemoroid in the morning , you march according to plan in the evening .

> I have never heard any serious Russia politician claim that the Baltics or Poland should be invaded.

Putin did on one of St.Petersburg conferences, but you are right there are no serious politicians in Russia.

> any serious Russia politician claim that the Baltics or Poland should be invaded.

The last few years have seen the talking heads on right-wing news TV become actual politicians with real power.

Dunno if that same pathway to power exists in Russia but it sure does in the US.

I think it has to be the french president, they’re the only EU country with nukes (I dont see UK as EU at this point)

Well, Macron is probably the only European leader that, declaratively at least, would like to push for more agency for Europe. Issue is that, for now, he offers only words. He already is trying to back down from the idea of sending troops to Ukraine (and number that was proposed was pathetic, considering intensity of this conflict).

Nukes are but a one thing, useful only in specific circumstances, but not sufficient. It is unrealistic to expect France using nukes if Russia attacks Lithuania, for example. Stakes are not justifying such escalation.

European countries lack conventional means: UAV, artillery, missiles. And soldiers.

At this moment, the Russian military is very weakened. Europe doesn't have overwhelming force but could easily kick Russia out of Ukraine. (Except it won't for political reasons.)

Yes, it is very weakened, but the rest of your post... Sorry, but it is the same kind of hopium that people keep overdosing since 2022.

It is easy to talk about war, Europe would win the battle for Ukraine if they entered the war, no doubt about it. What that means for the EU politically makes an intervention in Ukraine a pipedream.

https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/defending-europe-without-us...

Well, seems like some in Europe have doubts about it.

I lived when the defense industry got money during the cold war, of course they need more money to win and obviously they will do everything they can to get more funding.

Nothing in war is easy. It would be very dangerous and costly even if winning is likely.

Not easy path. Easy outcome. If you think winning will dangerous and costly, guess how dangerous and costly losing will be.

Russian helicopters in the early days of the Ukraine war had “To Berlin” painted on them in Cyrillic.

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