Comment by alephnerd | Hacker News Reader

Comment by alephnerd | Hacker News Reader

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> I wonder if things deteriorate into a failed state

Myanmar is basically a Southeast Asian version of Congo.

All the neighboring countries (China, India, Thailand) have already de facto intervened by maintaining relations with and arming regional warlords, and "their" guys in the Tatmadaw.

For example,

- China and the MDNAA [0] and the Wa State [1], and their "Goma" is Muse and Mongla

- India and the ethnic Chin opposition [2][3] and the Arakan Army [4] (the guys who did the Rohingya Genocide - they flipped from China to India in 23-24), and their "Goma" is Tamu and Sittwe.

- Thailand's Military Government's continued support of the Myanmar Tatmadaw [5], and their "Goma" is Myawaddy, Payathonzhu, Shwekoko (the city mentioned above), and Mawdaung.

China, India, and Thailand are all enabling the worst actors in Myanmar's civil war, and it's the civilians that lose.

> They did that in the 1970s with Cambodia

Which sparked a regional war with Vietnam in 1979, and multiple coups and counter-coups by Chinese and Vietnamese backed factions in Cambodia and Laos.

If Cambodia and Laos was chaotic, Myanmar will be 1,000 times worse, because several ethnic groups in Myanmar have large (1mil+) populations in both China and India, so the risk of regional contagion is massive, and has already started in Manipur [6].

[0] - https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/08/myanmars-junta-los...

[1] - https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/ethnic-issues/wa-state-aims-t...

[2] - https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/chinland-council-and-chin-...

[3] - https://theprint.in/india/chin-rebel-leader-lauds-indias-hel...

[4] - https://thediplomat.com/2024/03/is-india-finally-waking-up-t...

[5] - https://r2pasiapacific.org/files/8231/2022_Thai_response_mya...

[6] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/fighters-myanmar-civil-w...

Well in all fairness to China/India, they might prefer to work with a legitimate government, but the legitimate government of Myanmar (when it existed) has always been completely dysfunctional. It also has never really exercised any control of the borderlands, which are where rebel groups like those in Manipur often congregate. Even prior to the development of the scam industry, out of work Chinese in provinces like Yunnan would often seek opportunity in the more well run EAO quasi-states. There are well-maintained paved roads in Pangkham, which can't be said for much of the country.

> the legitimate government of Myanmar (when it existed) has always been completely dysfunctiona

No argument there. Those guys are horrible. They make Mao, Phibunsongkhram, and Indira Gandhi look like saints.

> It also has never really exercised any control of the borderlands, which are where rebel groups like those in Manipur often congregate

No argument there, despite half my family being veterans of the Dogra Regiment (IYKYK)

> Even prior to the development of the scam industry, out of work Chinese in provinces like Yunnan would often seek opportunity in the more well run EAO quasi-states

Because there was an "anti-corruption crackdown" that in Yunnan lead to criminal gangs (especially in the prostitution and drug space) being kicked out in 2012-15 to Myanmar. In reality, a lot of those guys didn't pay the right people off, so they left for ASEAN.

> There are well-maintained paved roads in Pangkham, which can't be said for much of the country.

100% True. And I don't blame local councils for supporting Chinese investment there.

But it's something even a local village councils could organize if the central government existed.

This is why China, Thailand, and India exert power in the hinterlands of Myanmar.

Myanmar has the right mix of human capital and low cost, but a horrible government meant it's outside countries using their worse people to access that capital (gangs)

The one that did genocide is Junta, not Arakan army. junta made disinformation to western media to cover up their asses and put the blame to Arakan army. Arakan army is main force that is fighting junta.

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