Ukraine agrees minerals deal with US | Hacker News Reader

Ukraine agrees minerals deal with US

ft.com

8 pointsville15 comments

Alternate article: https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-us-final-stages-agreei...

It's not clear what changed.

According to the FT article:

"Ukrainian officials say Kyiv is now ready to sign the agreement on jointly developing its mineral resources, including oil and gas, after the US dropped demands for a right to $500bn in potential revenue from exploiting the resources."

"The final version of the agreement, dated February 24 and seen by the FT, would establish a fund into which Ukraine would contribute 50 per cent of proceeds from the “future monetisation” of state-owned mineral resources, including oil and gas, and associated logistics. The fund would invest in projects in Ukraine.

It excludes mineral resources that already contribute to Ukrainian government coffers, meaning it would not cover the existing activities of Naftogaz or Ukrnafta, Ukraine’s largest gas and oil producers.

However, the agreement omits any reference to US security guarantees which Kyiv had originally insisted on in return for agreeing to the deal. It also leaves crucial questions such as the size of the US stake in the fund and the terms of “joint ownership” deals to be hashed out in follow-up agreements."

My impression was that one of Russia's main aims in Ukraine were precisely these minerals, oil, and gas resources in the eastern part of Ukraine. Doesn't this make the US in many ways the same as Russia?

Also, I'm certain this will be spun into very effective pro-Russian propaganda.

This was always a war between the US and Russia. I guess now the picture is clearer.

Russia, obviously. But remember, this war is in Europe — Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Finland all consider the territorial aims of Russia to be existential threats. The reason so many former soviet countries (like Ukraine) want into NATO is fearing Russia as an existential threat.

Biden was, I think, was afraid of escalation, of Russian nukes.

Trump and Putin both think in terms that could be phrased as "great powers set the rules, everyone else is an NPC". Both are going to continue to be confused that Europe doing exactly what Trump is telling them to do — increasing military spending — is going to result in a Europe that has no strings binding it to the USA.

> Doesn't this make the US in many ways the same as Russia?

Yes. Trump surrendering to Putin normalises the taking of territory and resources through conquest.

China will lose its rare earth minerals near monopoly?

They never really had one.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/11/norway-discovers-europes-lar...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wyoming-hits-the-rare-earth-mot...

They're not that rare, China's just a place that can extract it cheaply and not care too much about pollution.

Neither of those deposits are being extracted in large enough scale yet to make a dent in the near-monopoly China has.

Only because it hasn't really been necessary.

And because it's not economical and there hasn't been sufficient government subsidies as of yet to mine them. The barrier is quite high, and it's not clear if tariffs are enough.

Tarriffs will not be enough.

A trade war / embargo will be.

> trade war / embargo will be

Unclear. Historically, this just shifts production from the warring parties to neutrals. (An effect amplified by economies of scale.)

I'd count that as a win, personally.

> China's just a place that can extract it cheaply and not care too much about pollution

Welcome to the new Ukraine.

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