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My understanding is that incognito mode just doesn’t save local browser history. Your ISP and google can still log what you search based on IP or login state.

Your ISP can't see it because of TLS. But the search provider will know things.

Is the IP hidden if I search from my workplace, where there are 250 computers from several startups behind a single IP? (and it’s not a corporate computer) Granted, Google can identify browsers uniquely using fingerprinting, even with Incognito.

Yes, it happens all the time.

FISA. All that Patriot Act bullshit is still around most likely, including the secret courts to get secret warrants. It was supposed to be for terrorism, but just about everyone in history warned us over and over that these things get repurposed.

Guantanamo Bay is still around. The legacy of the Bush administration is for real.

There's no need to bring up FISA or Guantanamo. Normal criminal cases routinely get warrants from normal non-spooky courts for Google searches.