Yes, but I think the bottom 25% new devs are not going to make it.
Yes sir
Why do you think that?
The counterpoint is it gives them the tools to level the playing field a bit without actually having to improve on coding. They can work less and have the same output as someone more senior, experienced, and passionate but not using these tools.
LLMs will continue to get better and better at doing tasks typically reserved for the worst devs.
Junior developers may be able to crank out more code. But so can senior developers! Which is more valuable? AI is a force multiplier and senior devs are now WAY more effective. If a 10x developer was a thing in the past, they're now 100x developers with absolutely no need to hire or train juniors at all.