US has suspended all military aid to Ukraine in wake of Trump-Zelenskyy row
theguardian.com
theguardian.com
Related: Zelensky leaves White House after angry meeting (2895 points, 3 days ago, 5296 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43208973
There has been no significant loss of life in the PLA since Korea, noting perhaps minor spats with Vietnam or India. Tens of thousands died in 1979, similar numbers now in current times will be a hard swallow. And I would predict higher losses. When you have twenty aircraft carriers losing one or two is sad but wearable. China has three. If they conduct àir assault from the mainland they're incurring burdens there too. Static defences will be overwhelmed both sides. So.. some amount of airfield and strategic oil supply hits.. where do you go next?
Xi Jinpeng has to speak belligerently but the party secretly hopes Taiwan will blink first because actually incurring a tide of blood stains his legacy. If Xi dies soon, yes. Somebody might risk this as a signature move.
Taiwan is tiny, but pretending a 3 day war and done can happen after Ukraine is insanity.
I don't like talking up a defensive war, but I also don't like defeatist thinking. I prefer we confront than give in, and I am confident there is a regional understanding in. ASEAN to mount a defence. And China knows it.
Taiwan needs to embrace a more total defense strategy with stabilized MG turrets on most building roofs.
Insertion of targeted special forces? Sure.
Taiwan needs a more integrated defence strategy for sure but can we not pretend this is one and done seize control? You think the Taiwanese defence forces have failed to war game the scenarios?
Without wishing to give in to ad hom what's your goal here? Pessimism to defeatism? Some kind of nihilist decision not to contest?
Obviously for enough blood in the streets China will win.
To be sufficiently vulnerable to MANPADs you need enough of them in enough trained hands. If there is the element of surprise this does not happen. I envision a surprise air assault they flies below radar and establishes the coup before the army can get out of their barracks. The Taiwanese are not the 'rifle behind every blade of grass' type of people who have embraced total defense.
But I agree surprise could get them a lot. A long way. Assuming there is no edge defence radar doing over the horizon, nor satellite Intel, nor RF chatter, no other signs.
The first air assault failed outright. The second was a not quite success that held on for two weeks and was a definitive failure to meet objectives after a month.
If you define "success" as they had a fortnight they held out for prior to being killed or forced to withdraw then yes, that was a success . . .
Big picture wise .. not the game planned by Russia that was intended to seize and hold control of the airport while taking the capital.
That was a definite face plant.
The initial air assault did meet its objectives regardless of failures later and elsewhere. This success is likely instructive for a potential Taiwan invasion. They need to take it more seriously and build a network of remote control turrets.