The U.S. dollar is still the currency – but maybe not for much longer

morningstar.com

13 pointsgarspin3 comments

People have been saying this for decades, and it's little closer to coming true. Who's saying it this year?

> The CFA Institute surveyed more than 4,000 global financial professionals... close to two-thirds expect that the dollar will lose its leading reserve-currency status in the next five- to 15 years.

Investment advisors are saying it this year.

Meanwhile, the hard numbers say that USD went from 71% of global reserves in 2000 to 58% in 2022. That's about -0.5%/year. What should we expect it to be in 5 years? 55%. 15 years? 51%.

[0] https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-...

i’ve been hearing some version of this my whole life, and i’m old. Normally, I’d say, whatevs, but now we have a regime that seems to be doing its best to wreck every functional thing as fast as possible. Deliberately weakening the economy, tax cuts for the rich, and isolating us from our allies to favor adversaries.

Things that have changed recently that may affect the trend -

faith in the stability of US govt

declining need for petro dollars

increase in US debt as %age of GDP

(IANA Economist)

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