Wall Street Fears Trump Will Wreck the Soft Landing

Surprisingly, the administration who first devised an economic strategy and then found one (!!!) economist to support it[1] is bucking conventional wisdom on how to run an economy. The article says it well: when the president is telling us to "buckle our seatbelts", you should expect hard times ahead.

I'd love to be wrong for my loved ones' sakes, but IMO the technical parameters are bleak:

1. Such a huge downturn in government employment that they're proposing removing government spending from GDP[2][3] (which would make for an unbalanced ledger).

2. Cratering consumer sentiment in reaction to both real and imagined threats.[4][5]

3. Growing solidarity in NA & Europe against US trade war tactics, especially for countries where they're driven by provably-false claims about Fentanyl (how does one solve a non-existent problem, even if you wanted to cave?)[6]

4. Vought slowly taking direct control over the Fed, which would obviously send confidence in the dollar into a tailspin. So far they're not claiming control over the fed's monetary activity, but the writing is on the wall to say the least.[7]

Not looking great! "Hard Landing" is the best case scenario at this point, IMHO...

[1] https://financialpost.com/news/stephen-miran-economist-trump...

[2] https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spen...

[3] https://bsky.app/profile/quantian.bsky.social/post/3ljijddpv...

[4] https://bsky.app/profile/peark.es/post/3lip32so7k22h

[5] https://bsky.app/profile/peark.es/post/3liz5aggx4c2l

[6] https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/03/politics/us-canada-trade-fent...

[7] https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25538563-ending-inde...

There's no such thing as 'soft landing' at the beginning

trump received a ticking bomb from the biden admin, his best option is to trigger the bomb as soon as possible, otherwise he would become the worst president since Hoover

again, I'm not defending Trump. if Harris wins the election, she will also become the most failed president

https://www.thedailyupside.com/economics/after-bashing-janet...

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/nonfarm-payroll-growth-revis...