Tesla Stock Is Plunging Again. It Could Drop for a Ninth Straight Week
barrons.com
barrons.com
Until about mid-2024, Tesla was still projecting a 50% growth in car sales per year, until 2030 - with a goal of selling 20M car / year by that deadline. That was a very nice story that people believed.
Now they believe that Tesla will produce billions of Optimus robots. Which is also a nice story.
There's also 10 Chinese and even some European startup competitors that aren't even bothering with advanced mechanics. Humanoid robots that can be described as "quasi-direct-drive motors with sticks in between", that do everything the Tesla robots can.
If Tesla's demonstrated anything, it's that they can barely match 10 year old Boston Dynamics demonstrations, and 2-3 year old Chinese demonstrations. It's making clear what everyone in robotics knew 40 years ago: software will win robotics. Not hardware.
And let's just not mention the very embarrassing "human disguised as robot" demos Musk did.
3.6B / 100K = 36000 years. It's more like 240M/year to get to 3.6B. The number of human workers isn't flat either. And Tesla isn't going to be making 240M robots a year anytime soon so WTF?
... Why would anyone believe this? Like, even if they suddenly magically jump from level 2 to level 5 (implausible), what's so special about their thing that they'd have a monopoly? If _they_ can do it, the likes of Waymo certainly can.
I think he's made it pretty clear that's exactly what he thinks.
But many (most) Wall Street analysts were attaching 0 importance to these 2, and their valuations were mostly driven by the projections of auto-sales. Which indeed at 20M units / year, given the margins they made in 2022, would be something valuable.
Or, are you perhaps skewed in your own opinion due to your near constant support of the american conservatives in your previous posts and comments.
A long way yet to fall
Tesla's stock price has always been based largely on feels/memestock value, so if that goes, well, that's kind of all it has.