Despite Ukraine war, Europe imported even more Russian gas last year
e360.yale.edu
e360.yale.edu
Imports from Russia dropped from just over €60bn in 2022 to around €10bn in 2023, but decreased very little since then.
The biggest gas distributor in Austra had a contract that basically couldn't be cancelled. However, the contract specified that the Russians deliver the gas, and the Russians did that through Uraine, on a contract that expired late in 2024. At that point the Russian exports to Austra dropped to approximately zero, and I haven't heard any complaints from Austria.
There are some other customers (more willing than the Austrians) who also got transit through Ukraine, their purchases also decreased drastically at the same time.
https://energyandcleanair.org/february-2025-monthly-analysis...
On the other hand, hydrocarbons are a global commodity. If EU bought from somewhere else, then Russian methane would just substitute for whoever would have bought from that somewhere else. Buying from somewhere else just increases costs through use of less efficient transportation than whatever pipelines remain.
And on that same other hand, hydrocarbon extraction isn't free revenue for the Russian state. Unless Russia is willing to go the way of Venezuela and starve its golden goose, the total free revenue is probably something similar to the profit margin of an oil company[0], which is pretty volatile. If an average margin is 20%, EU's 21.9B of fuel purchases is more like 2.4B of Russian govt support compared to 18.7B to Ukraine.
0. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/012015/what-average...
Yes and also not the full 21.9B claimed by the article. I wonder how one could contemplate the different levels of external war that could be exerted by a country based on its external economic ties. One the one hand is going full juche with no external economic ties (which the DPRK isn't quite), and on the other is some fully external state run on banking or tourism like Liechtenstein or Maldives.
Nuclear, otoh, provides constant output (barring maintenance windows) and has the full cost of the plant, from construction to decommissioning, built into it.
We've got nuclear submarines that run just fine- the prototypal tiny reactor. Had we built more and smaller nuclear power plants decades ago, we could have averted a lot of emissions and so on and so forth.
Of course, if we're building enough renewable capacity that electricity is basically free when it's sunny or windy, that changes the eceonomics and maybe we should all be making hydrogen in that sort of [bumpily]-abundant future.
However, storing hydrogen is also a pain - the density is crap even as a liquid and very technically challenging, and the density is mind-bogglingly crap as a gas - you'd want to find some vast geological underground reservoir in which to store it economically.
None of these are insurmountable, it's just not an especially attractive option as things stand.
Storing hydrogen is trivially done in salt caverns. We already do it that way today.
Both wind farms and nuclear power plants end up with a "strike price", which is effectively a collar option around the spot price so that revenue is guaranteed. It can in some cases result in wind farms having to pay money back if the spot price goes up too much.
Separately there is the capacity auction https://www.emrsettlement.co.uk/schemes/capacity-market/ and a fast frequency response market (which batteries are starting to appear in).
> Had we built more and smaller nuclear power plants decades ago
The "learning rate" for reactors appears to be negative: over time, they get harder to build. Possibly as people discover more ways in which things could go wrong. Hinckley Point C is over time and budget.
Small nuclear plants are (maybe) cheaper per "plant" but not cheaper per watt and likely never will be.
Anti-nuclear folks I've heard about (and argued myself against) in both Spain and Sweden, but anti-solar people? Never heard anyone being against solar, what are the arguments for not having solar granted you have enough sun and besides any temporary economic arguments?
- the energy they produce is too unreliable
- their production creates more pollution than they save
- the lifespan is too short to be worth it
- they require too much land that should be used differently
On the face of it it sounds somewhat sensible point by point, but the more you did in, the more it just boils down to finding excuses, any excuse at all, for NIMBYism, often from rich urbanites who moved to the country and want it to be an episode of Downton Abbey, and fret about their house price more then anything else in the world.
This one tries a particularly hamfisted and tendentious "but Ukraine", neglecting that the fucked domestic energy situation is heavily impacted by Ukraine right now.
No one is saying that it is something that should interest private sector investors. Obviously on a spreadsheet it has no chance of comparing favorably against slapping up windmills.
It needs to be looked at in terms of national security.
https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/docs/hydrogenprogramlibrarie...
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/sweden-proposes-stat...
There's a culture war about each item on that list, oddly enough.
I know that the taxation on renewables is always touchy because the technology and how electricity gets routed and used changed faster than tax law.
https://www.politico.eu/article/robert-lambrou-alternative-f...
According to the article the controversy is a law making it mandatory to buy something that costs €17,000 which is close enough to double the price of a reasonable alternative. The thing being heat pumps doesn't really an issue.
It is the same as the "anti-solar" push back in the day. It was pointed out at the time that Germany's initial Energiewende push was going to be a disaster and they ended up with some of the most expensive electricity in Europe for a while there. Again, that isn't an anti-solar or anti-wind observation. That is an observation that the people running the electricity grid are incompetent and verging on enemies to German prosperity. It makes a lot of sense that people like the AfD if they can consistently pitch "we're not going to just slug you for thousands of euros" but that isn't an anti-heat-pump stance.
There isn't resistance to any particular technology, if it made sense to use I'd expect general support for the idea. The controversy is the people who are insisting on driving the costs up for no reason are quite controversial, because they are morons and shouldn't be in charge of anything.
My theory is post-WWII the British did something to permanently screw up the ability of the German elite circles to function, it is quite stunning to watch them struggle to understand why people might not like expensive, scarce energy and ongoing visible money wasting projects.
a) opposition to regulations that aim to transition to them,
b) simplistic arguments against them based on upfront cost?
And c) then you flatly state they don't make sense.
And then finally, just as a massive and unnecessary cherry on top, you come up with a wild stabbed-in-the-back/mind-control conspiracy theory to explain why your opinion differs from the experts in Germany (and the rest of the world).
Transition to solar/wind is temporarily costly to the individual in itself because energy prices are no longer fixed 24/7. So maintaining your energy budget means adjusting your usage to different time periods.
When the individual citizen's energy expense is further increased because they themselves have to buy equipment, then that becomes an issue of funding rather than the technology. They would not be equally opposed to large tax-funded energy systems, so it's not a criticism of the technology itself.
Their own general stance:
> The AfD rejects any policy and tax that claims to be for alleged climate protection because humans cannot protect the climate. We also want to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement. ... The alleged scientific consensus on "man-made climate change" has always been politically constructed...The predictions of the IPCC are based on inadequate models. The warnings of the so-called "climate science" have completely shifted from the predicted ice age of the 1970s to the currently claimed "global warming". ... On the contrary, CO2 has proven to be a driver of enhanced global plant growth, thereby benefiting global food security. ... The AfD vehemently rejects this goal and the associated societal restructuring. This also includes the EU's Green Deal, which is destroying the European economy and thus our prosperity.
Which directly supports their specific heat pump policy:
> Lifting the ban on gas and oil heating systems. In a technology-neutral heating sector, inexpensive gas, preferably from pipelines or heating oil will be available again. None of the so-called renewable energies or the proposed new applications, such as heat pumps or electric mobility, can survive in the market without subsidies, while conventional energies are artificially made more expensive or banned
Source: https://www.carbonbrief.org/germany-election-2025-what-the-m...
Why are you trying to pass this off as reasonable differences on approach?
Heat pumps are also good, but (as far as I can tell) burdened with a high sticker price. Great option when you replace an existing heating system at the end of life or a new build (we've got one in our new build), but I wouldn't say they are a "quickly" making a difference.
You're right about them being a culture war item though. I've seen political posters around here by people upset by them.
Batteries are cheap these days, but I think we're still a way off from manufacturing at the scale needed for "quickly". The factories are going up pretty quickly, just not fast enough given the context of "can we stop giving any money to oil and gas producing countries we no longer like?"
I think the hard part of batteries isn't culture war at the moment, it's that people are still pattern matching the term to AA's and drawing false conclusions about what's possible.
US EIA: North America’s LNG export capacity is on track to more than double by 2028 - https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62984 - September 3, 2024
France recently (~2 years) discovered a fossil hydrogen reserve (~46 million tons), but that will take time to develop and LNG imports are a potential bridge while also providing time for renewables and storage deployments to continue to push out gas for generation.
France strikes Hydrogen gold: World’s largest Hydrogen reserve worth $92 billion could make it a global leader in clean energy revolution - https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/f... - March 24th, 2025
French drillers may have stumbled upon a mammoth hydrogen deposit - https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/09/french-drillers-may-... - September 20th, 2023
[EU] Electricity from renewable sources reaches 47% in 2024 - https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/d... - March 19th, 2025
Maybe a dumb question, but wouldn't that have to be transported by ships rather than pipeline in that case, if it's supposed to go all the way to Europe? Sounds a lot more expensive if so.
> [Gazprom] Management misjudged how resolute European capitals would be, according to one of the executives, who said the thinking inside the company was that Europe would quickly be back "begging" for Russian gas supplies to resume. Despite the economic pain of higher energy costs, the EU has not rolled back sanctions.
> "We proved to be wrong," the executive said.
> U.S. gas exporters quickly moved to replace Russian gas in Europe. The U.S. has become the biggest exporter of LNG to the continent, with supplies tripling since 2021. Europe still buys Russia's sea-borne liquefied natural gas (LNG), but mainly from Gazprom's rivals, Novatek's Yamal LNG plant.
> The European Union aims to end its use of Russian fossil fuels by 2027 and its overall gas consumption has decreased in part due to a shift to renewable energy sources.
Russia's high-flying gas exporter [Gazprom] crippled as Europe stays away - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gazproms-grandeur-fa... | https://archive.today/3lHKy - March 13, 2025
LNG Market - Comprehensive Study Report & Recent Trends - https://introspectivemarketresearch.com/reports/lng-market/ - August 2024
Economics of Gas Transportation by Pipeline and LNG - https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-86884-0_... | https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86884-0_2
(commodities market participant, no current LNG exposure, think in systems)
I mean, compared to pipelines, as mentioned in my comment. AFAIK, we (Spain) get most of our gas from North Africa (Algeria I guess?), so there are more pipelines into Europe, not just from Russia.
So I guess I more wanted to know how the costs compared between shipping this cryogenically frozen gas and importing natural gas from say Africa.
Because of environmentalism. We want gas, but we also want it from someone willing to tear up his back yard for it, so we can cosplay as being eco-friendly.
The EU has flowed like a trillion dollars into LNG infrastructure with longer payback timelines than wells.
Energy is expensive and unreliable. Why? Well, its either because we aren't doing enough net zero, or because we have an _enormous_ supply-side restriction enforced by the state. Not all of which is due to environmentalism, to be clear.
I remember having conversations with "serious" adults when I was 14 about why it was mad to bet the house on wind and solar (Nuclear was very uncool at the time). Lo and behold a decade later, we really, really, need that baseload.
There are no energy-poor rich countries.
Some are completely happy being poorer and colder but I think something will snap soon in Britain in particular. Blair will have Ed Miliband disapeared soon.
Over that decade, the UK's one nuclear reactor under construction has gone from site approval to .. still not finished.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_...
Mind you, quite a lot of the no-progress-on-anything can be blamed on Britain's NIMBYs and press. People want electricity but hate pylons; what can you do?
I work in the energy sector and there's a huge amount of misinformation/confusion around why energy is expensive (I'm gonna ignore unreliable because that's a whole other can of worms). The energy price is almost entirely set by natural gas, the UK doesn't yet have the ability to turn away natural gas as a source, meaning it basically has to pay whatever's asked.
Even if you don't care about the environment (although I think you should!) and just want cheap energy, more renewable energy and flexibility in the market is exactly what you're looking for. You can actually see this on charts super clearly. Take a look on https://grid.iamkate.com/ specically at the energy mixup and the wholesale energy cost. You'll see that the amount of gas being used is an inverted graph of the cost (i.e. when we're using gas as a nation, that's driving up the price, when we don't have to, energy is a lot cheaper, and sometimes negatively priced)
Although, if you do want to burn something, you can burn biofuel (basically wood). The UK's only company that does this, Drax, are really not great ecologically, but just focusing on cost, diversifying from gas to a mix with more biofuel would have huge benefits.
I am pretty sure Russia had a hand in amplifying the concerns of people hit by those earthquakes.
edit: when writing about stress for Dutch people, you can also mention the stress caused by not being able to afford heating/reducing heating to 16 deg C
Okay, so is Trump playing the tarrif game to bring manufacturing back home, or is cynicism and bad faith only okay when it's about US conservatives? Because the hypocrisy is on full display here.
I'm fine with being fair to the EU and giving them the benefit of the doubt, but only if we're fair to everyone.
No? If you don’t drill then the carbon emissions from that drilling don’t happen.
I think that fact opens a loophole for carbon credits, actually.
The people scaremongering about the Russian menace are playing a cynical game designed to drum up support for the war in Ukraine. They understand that people are selfish, and are thus more likely to support the war in Ukraine if they believe that it keeps the Russian bear from their doorstep.
Vast majority of what's left is LNG, which is rather hard to shut off because it's easy to conceal it's origin, but for the same reason, it's not a source of any danger to Europe: Putin can't shut it off from his side, either - because the stream is managed by international traders so there is no way he could say "no selling it to Europeans". Goal of getting rid of Russian energy was to limit political influence/blackmail potential and LNG imports are safe from that.
Apart from LNG, there is Turkstream. It provides little and will be shut down by 2027. There is very little friction about it.
And the real alternative is of course, deep cuts in gas consumption. Which is what RepowerEU is trying to achieve.
By the way, 2024 Russian gas imports show a slight increase only because 2023 decrease went ahead of plan. 2023 plan was 68 bcm and only 45 bcm were imported, even 2024 went ahead of reduction plan and 2025 is certain to be ahead of plan, too.
And if pipeline gas is cheaper is also up for debate, because gas is gas to the markets and the long-running supply contracts (which turned out to be worthless because Russia was suffering a conveniently-timed force majeure) had indexed prices.
However, they don't go into historic numbers and if they really are trying to build any alternatives to Russian gas or not. Building something to replace as critical an asset as gas takes time. It would have benefitted everyone (the readers) if they dug into that a bit more
Organizations hosted at universities having and publishing strong political viewpoints is... not uncommon.
Notice how those who urge citizens to sacrifice for a higher cause never have to sacrifice anything themselves.
The point is that we have 2 levels of indirection before we get to the commissioners: national elections in EU usually determine the composition of the parlament, then parlament makes a government (first level). The head of government then appoints a commissioner (second level).
The decision citizens take at national elections is determined by a variety of factors, first of all at the national level.
Given this context, to claim that citizens have any influence on who's part of the EU commission is delusional. If they did, we certainly wouldn't have Von Der Leyen in power, since she enjoys a measly ~34% approval among EU citizens.
For example I think EU citizens are not able (as in not willing to put the time and effort) to understand and discuss what EU is and what kind of MPs we want there and what they can really do.
I even consider somehow that is a mistake to even vote for those if the discussion is not about the EU and the direction we want the EU to go but about how can we protect their own country where country = ANY of the members.
Hard to tell, to be honest. Maybe the solution is a presidential republic with a federal government like the USA. Maybe it's to give more control to the EU parlament.
IMO the EU has expanded too much for its weak government model, and has now too many conflicting interests within it. It can't work without a strong central government, and since we can't find an agreement between all members on what that government should look like, we might as well split into multiple smaller unions where members interests converge.
> I even consider somehow that is a mistake to even vote for those if the discussion is not about the EU and the direction we want the EU to go but about how can we protect their own country where country = ANY of the members.
I agree, that's why it doesn't make sense to go through national elections to pick a commissioner, that will also skew the vote in nationalist terms. We have the EU elections to take decisions about the EU, but it turns out the EU parlament is pretty much powerless.
Recent estimates reckon that last years conservative campaign against heat pumps led to a rocking 24 billion € extra spending on gas (https://www.focus.de/earth/energie/auf-kosten-der-verbrauche...)
Is that what you're saying?
100% Gas will use 100TWh of gas to generate power
50% renewable will use 50TWh of gas to generate power
You go to 60% solar 40% gas.
Obviously the numbers are made up but that’s the point I’m trying to make.
If your example you've reduced generation from fossil fuels from 70% to 40% so still a win.
I assume you're still going on about nuclear. The problem with nuclear is that it doesn't make financial sense even if it can run at 100% of capacity for 100% of the time, it certainly can't cope with variable load - you can't scale nuclear to provide your peak amount, so you need to be able to top up with gas or battery, just like renewables need top up
As I understand it, Russia hasn't been able to actually call it a "war" domestically, they did burn through prisoners rather than trained forces until they ran out of people willing to believe the chances of surviving to enjoy early release, and Russian forces have been only partially rather than fully mobilised with their conscripts mostly kept back from the front line for a while now due to domestic concerns.
A war that started in 2014. They watched Putin annex Crimea then proceed to built stronger ties with him.
It's also worth pointing out that countries like Germany had a hand in making sure Ukraine won't make it to NATO. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Bucharest_summit
> The Alliance did not offer a Membership Action Plan to Georgia or Ukraine, largely due to the opposition of Germany
Moreover, US govt urged them not to do it but they did it anyway: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/trump-scolded-germany-for...
So it's not really that they had "only 2-3 years", they had more then a decade to sever ties and strengthen their military. But they did they opposite.
At the same time, the realpolitik take is this all not too inconvenient for Europe. Give Ukranians some loans, send a few tanks, hug and kiss Zelensky in photo-ops when he visits. Let them keep Russian busy and grinding them down. It's not their soldiers after all, it's Ukrainians. If Ukranians lose they can go "oh well, too bad" and then keep buying Russian gas and oil.
There should have been a much stronger response to Russia shooting down an airliner full of Dutch nationals! And for using chemical weapons in a UK city! And yet everyone wanted to keep the gas and money flowing.
Another angle to keep an eye on is shipments from Germany, especially of advanced machine tools. There's lots of stuff that's very difficult to substitute from anywhere else, and should be much more thoroughly embargoed.
At the scale of industry we're talking about, a lot of counterintuitive things happen that make perfect sense in context.
If Russian Gas is sold for any foreign currency amount at all, then that is foreign currency it can use elsewhere. Russia can maintain the operational plant with its own money.
Market price is irrelevant. Gas is swapped for items Russia can't make itself. Russia isn't interested in foreign tokens. It's interested in foreign made stuff.
Keynes' phamplet "How to Pay for the War"[0] is a good description of how the 'minting money' mechanism should be controlled in wartime.
Europe really should have invested in fracking and nuclear power so this would never have been needed, but the Putin-funded "environmentalists" and degrowthers put a stop to that.
Any evidence for that? I think a lot of people would not like fracking in their back yards, regardless of being "Putin-funded". Just regular garden variety NIMBY-ism
Then again, maybe you mistyped. The decision to shut down the nuclear plants was taken by a conservative government. (Angela Merkel, right after Fukushima).
Admittedly, the greens have been campaigning to shut down nuclear plants, but they also have always campaigned to replace them with Wind and Solar power.
Even when the conservatives pulled the plug on nuclear power plants in 2011, Germany just stopped decreasing emissions of its electricity production for a year or two. And this was at a time of higher gas prices, so it's even up for debate how much the nuclear exit contributed to that short stagnation.
The Green Party is anti-nuclear and it’s debatable whether that’s positive or not. But they also are staunchly anti-coal and other carbon based energy sources. The greens have pushed constantly for renewables, both to achieve strategic energy autonomy and lowering greenhouse gas emissions.
The Germans have introduced the first legislation to subsidize renewables, in 1990, in 2000 under a red/geeen coalition renewed as EEG (Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz) that taxed fossil electricity and guaranteed a fixed above market price for producers of renewable electricity. This is widely regarded as a major boost for both solar and wind energy. We did, however, drop the ball a little when the conservatives came back to power. We still do range in the midfield when it comes to pet capita carbon emissions.
We certainly could do better and I wish we did, but blaming it on nuclear power is fairly simplistic. If you look at https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/daten/energie/energieverbrauc... for example, then you’ll notice that our love for ICE cars is a major factor - cars are one of our major sources of carbon dioxide emissions, far more than nuclear plants replaced with gas plants.
Not bad as a small step towards a perfect future.
I personally do not believe that Russia does it in Germany via the Green Party but more so over other parties, such as AfD and BSW.
[1] - https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/P-9-2022-00127....
[2] - https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/P-9-2022-00127....
[3] - https://www.greenpeace.de/publikationen/20220517-greenpeace-....
You do not need to control the whole of a ideology driven organisation , when you can nudge the extremists and usefools to undo their own organisation .
The party leadership forwards public transport, the oil lobby finances damaging cars, glueing to streets and other activities. The fanatics of your own site, are the worst enemy .
In my hometown you can still find weathered down stickers over a decade old opposing fracking.
In almost every part of Europe, you don't have any right to subsurface assets and have to eat the rare (but significant when they do occur) groundwater and seismic harms without recompense. The legal systems incentivise rational people to adopt NIMBYism.
Generally not in any areas where there's something potentially valuable in the ground, though. Mineral rights tend to be separate there.
- Dragged you into its proxy war with your largest energy supplier,
- Blew up the largest pipeline supplying said energy just so you couldn't turn it on again even if you wanted to,
- stole all your businesses that fled to the US because of high energy costs,
- Forced you to buy expensive American oil and gas
Amusingly, the thing that will convince me that Europe is looking out for its own interests again, is if they try to restore relations with Russia, their most natural supplier of materials and energy. But they're too lost in their own infantile hubris to see it.
Second Russia started it, not the US, not the EU, not Ukraine
Russia and Putin
Third and most importantly defeating Russia and restoring peace is of vital importance to both EU and UK. Far more important then it is to the US even though obviously making sure Ukraine wins is important to the US as well (not that Trump understands or cares that it's in America's interests). Restoring relationship with Russia before Russia chose to end this idiotic war would make them even stupider then Putin was for starting it. It would be incredibly harmful to their interests. If Putin was willing to end the war and give up on conquering Ukraine then restoring relationship would be a useful carrot
Really? Minsk agreements I, II, Istanbul... All Russian attempts to reach a compromise have failed, both in 2014-15 with the Western sabotage of the agreements reached in Minsk. As well as Istanbul peace negotiations.
More recent negotiations fell apart largely because Russia would not agree to reasonable measures and could not be trusted to even the measures they claimed they might agree to.
Even that ignores the fact that this was not needed at all if Russia hadn't invaded Ukraine in 2014(which was against https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian%E2%80%93Ukrainian_Frie... where they agreed to Ukranian sovereignty and borders).
Want to know how the US responded? It was essentially “uh we were only sanctioning specific individuals and companies who we were unhappy with, not the entire nation so lol”, and their second argument was that the Memorandum “IS NOT LEGALLY BINDING”. Yes, the US said that.
Just as a refresher, the third clause of the full Memorandum reads that signatories will:
‘Refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine, the Republic of Belarus, and Kazakhstan of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.’
So the US had already violated this by 2007.
And the memorandum was again disregarded in 2014 when the Ukrainian constitution was also used as toilet paper, since it fundamentally altered the nature of Ukrainian sovereignty.
So again, remind us why Russia should feel compelled to follow this mythical Budapest memorandum (non-binding btw) when the other parties were clearly violating the terms or acting in bad faith?
If you can’t explain why, I’ll just assume that you don’t have a valid response.
Also since I expected you might try to wave it away I noted Russia also violated a bilateral treaty it had with Ukraine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian%E2%80%93Ukrainian_Frie...
> the recognition of the inviolability of existing borders, and respect for territorial integrity and mutual commitment not to use its territory to harm the security of each other.
Russia has never felt compeled to follow anything. As you note one party has consistently acted in bad faith, but that party is Russia. The question is not why Russia should trust the West with regards to a fantasy of NATO invasion, it's how West or Ukraine can trust it to abide by any deals when it repeatedly violated them and started this war for no reason other then seeking to conquer or dominate Ukraine
People LOVE to take cold showers while feeling morally superior to the evil Russians.